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26 changes: 26 additions & 0 deletions src/reference-manual/analysis.qmd
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -327,6 +327,32 @@ making the sample of interest more Gaussian and hence the $\hat{R}$
statistic more accurate.


#### Sampler diagnostics {-}

The convergence statements above are about functions of the
parameters. The sampler diagnostics `accept_stat__`, `treedepth__`,
`n_leapfrog__`, and `divergent__` also depend on the step size and the
metric. Each chain adapts its own step size and metric during warmup
and keeps them fixed during sampling, so their values can differ
between chains. For example, a smaller step size usually gives a
higher acceptance statistic, a larger tree depth, and more leapfrog
steps. The stationary distribution of these sampler diagnostics can
therefore differ between chains, whereas $\hat{R}$ and the multi-chain
effective sample size assume the same stationary distribution in all
chains. The column `stepsize__` gives the step size of each
iteration, which is constant in each chain unless step size jitter is
on.

The step size and the metric change the proposals of the sampler but
not the target distribution. The parameters and `lp__`, a function of
the parameters, have the same stationary distribution in all chains.
The column `energy__` is the value of the Hamiltonian at the draw: the
negative of `lp__` plus the kinetic energy. Because Stan draws a new
momentum in each iteration, the kinetic energy has the same
distribution for any metric. The statistic $\hat{R}$ and the effective
sample size thus apply to the parameters, `lp__`, and `energy__`.


#### Final words on convergence monitoring {-}

"Convergence" is a global property and holds for all integrable
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